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Intergenerational Consequences of Rare Disasters
时 间：2025年7月2日（Wed.）
10:00 - 11:30 a.m.
地 点：同德楼204
主 讲：Marlon Azinovic-Yang (UNC Chapel Hill)
论文摘要
We analyze the intergenerational consequences of rare disasters in a calibrated overlapping generations model featuring realistic household portfolios and equilibrium asset prices. Households own houses and trade in bonds and equity. In a disaster, young households suffer from reduced labor income and tightened borrowing constraints. Older households lose a large portion of their savings invested in risky assets. The relative winners are households shortly before retirement, who have a more stable labor income, are not borrowing constrained, and young enough to benefit from large returns of assets purchased during the disaster at depressed prices. In order to solve the model, we advance contemporary deep learning based solution methods along two complementary dimensions. First, we introduce an economics-inspired neural network architecture that, by construction, ensures that market clearing conditions are always satisfied. Second, we illustrate how to solve models with multiple assets by introducing them step-wise into the economy. These two innovations enable us to reduce the number of equilibrium conditions, which are not fulfilled exactly, and to substantially improve the stability of the training algorithm.
主讲简介
Dr. Marlon Azinovic-Yang is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. His research focuses on macroeconomics, financial economics, and computational methods. He specializes in heterogeneous agent models, inequality, and the application of deep learning to solve macroeconomic models. Dr. Azinovic-Yang holds a PhD from the University of Zurich and the Swiss Finance Institute.
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