毓秀讲堂 |【Seminar 预告】 No.642--蒋为（香港科技大学）

Using address-level bitcoin transaction data, we demonstrate that miners’ bitcoin supply responds to their inventories but not to bitcoin prices. To explain these observations, we develop a dynamic bitcoin mining model in which the bitcoin price is determined by transaction demand, and miners’ supply choices are driven by inventory management for profit maximization. This model is supported by calibrations that align with miners’ inventory data. Our model implies that miners’ economic rents are determined by the marginal value of inventory, which depends on different states rather than rising at interest rate, indicating a rejection of the Hotelling rule. Additionally, we reveal that it is the high jump risk that drives miners’ supply to respond to inventories rather than to prices.